Sunday 23 March 2008

Economic reality is slowly sinking in. In Euroland the economic numbers are coming dangerously weak. That will put the massively overvalued Euro into a swan dive as the ECB is finally forced to cut rates as well. Commodity producing economies will get whacked as their main engine of growth, Chindia, finally stalls out. These are export economies and the US and Euroland were their final destinations. It’s a closed system and the feedback loop is very real. Those economies will all be as badly off or worse. The US dollar will gain significantly as huge quantities of capital are repatriated, especially from emerging economies.“The euro has some room to adjust lower. We're getting confirmation that subprime is shifting to the European financial sector. The euro-zone economy will start to slow from here on.” –Kengo Suzuki, Currency Strategist, Shinko Securities“Commodities -- one of the few remaining long trades -- have turned south. The currency market is next in line, forcing investors out of yielding positions. We underline our bearish commodity currency call. The dollar will rebound.” –Hans-Guenter Redeker, Stragesit, BNP Paribas

Canada's Dollar Falls Most Since 1985 on Plunge in Commodities: “Canada's dollar plummeted the most in more than two decades this week as investors shunned commodities on concern that a slowing U.S. economy will curb global demand for energy, metals and grains.

The currency dropped 3.3 percent, the steepest since 1985, as commodities slumped. Gold declined 11 percent from a record earlier in the week, and copper posted its biggest weekly decline in 10 months. Crude oil fell more than $13, going below $100 a barrel for the first time since March 5. Commodities account for about half of Canada's exports. The oil sands in Alberta contain the largest crude deposits outside the Middle East.”

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